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Chewbacca · 27-11-2022, 16:07

On the balance of probabilities England will win the group and play at 7pm, but finish 2nd and they play at 3pm.

Possibilities

Any win against Wales - England 1st and play at 7pm - no clash

Wales win by 7 goals or more and England will finish 3rd -no clash

Wales win by 4-6 goals and they will finish above England, however England will still finish 2nd if the USA v Iran game is a draw - possible clash but unlikely(the draw has and implied 28.6% chance).

Wales win by 3 or fewer goals, they finish below England, and England only win the group the USA v Iran game is a draw - possible clash and likely

Wales v England a draw - England win the Group if USA v Iran is a draw, or is USA win scoring less than 5 goals. USA need to win by 5, or at least 5-1 and catch up 4 fair play points and then win on lots drawn if England is 0-0. Possible clash but only 25% or so if a draw.

Therefore the most likely way of clashing is Iran winning and England not winning which is over 10/1.

27-11-2022, 16:07	#1
Chewbacca Full Member+ Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 938 Liked: 227 times Rep Power: 54341	v Oxford and possible WC Clash On the balance of probabilities England will win the group and play at 7pm, but finish 2nd and they play at 3pm. Possibilities Any win against Wales - England 1st and play at 7pm - no clash Wales win by 7 goals or more and England will finish 3rd -no clash Wales win by 4-6 goals and they will finish above England, however England will still finish 2nd if the USA v Iran game is a draw - possible clash but unlikely(the draw has and implied 28.6% chance). Wales win by 3 or fewer goals, they finish below England, and England only win the group the USA v Iran game is a draw - possible clash and likely Wales v England a draw - England win the Group if USA v Iran is a draw, or is USA win scoring less than 5 goals. USA need to win by 5, or at least 5-1 and catch up 4 fair play points and then win on lots drawn if England is 0-0. Possible clash but only 25% or so if a draw. Therefore the most likely way of clashing is Iran winning and England not winning which is over 10/1.