Bird Flu - will it be headless chickens or a dead duck?

Tealeaf · 14-10-2005, 10:25

It looks like it is finally upon us. Avian flu has now been confirmed in Romania and Turkey (thats the country) and given migratory flight patterns it should only be a matter of weeks before the first case is confirmed in the UK.At least according to the theory.
Meanwhile, the current flu vaccine offered by GP's offers immunity against only a few strains of flu virus and not against H5N1, the human variant. Even if one was available, it is unlikely that the UK, with only one flu vaccine plant, would be in a position to manufacture dosages in sufficient quantities.
So what is going to happen? Well, according to whispers down here, the goverment is preparing some pretty severe contingency plans, including restrictions on rail and road travel, closure of schools,etc,in an attempt to isolate any possible outbreak of H5N1. I don't know to what extent this is fact or just silly rumour.
I do remember, though the scares over mad cow/new variant CJD disease and a projected UK death toll anywhere between 100,000 and several million. 10 years later the toll is no more than a couple of hundred.
So what is it to be? Are we going to panic over this and run around like a bunch of headless chickens or is it going to be a non starter, a dead duck. Would the good people of Hyndburn panic anyway? And if the virus does prove highly contagious, what are you going to do?

entwisi · 14-10-2005, 12:00

Gosh is it 10 years since BSE? I remember working at Bentley wood farm at teh time. We had a day where we sold no beef products at all. Then everyone came in and oredered steaks to show that we weren't scared of british beef!

I reckon it will be a dead duck. The world must have been through stuff liek this thousands of times over the last couple of million years and we are still here thanks.

WillowTheWhisp · 14-10-2005, 12:20

I don't think I'll bother panicking. It's fairly non-productive.

harwood red · 14-10-2005, 12:59

If it happens, it happens, no point panicking as willow says its non productive.

lettie · 14-10-2005, 13:21

Lets face it, some form of flu wipes out thousands of people worldwide every year.. If we did have an epidemic, and the government put their contingency plans into practice, they would in all likelihood fail. As with any infectious disease there will be a time lag between when it was contracted and when symptoms begin to manifest. In some infectious diseases you can have contact but not have symptoms until one or two weeks later, the common childhood illnesses spring to mind here, Chickenpox, Rubella, Measles etc... Even if it is a short incubation of only a few hours..... How many people would you come into contact with in that short time? I know that for me it could be anything between 10 -100......

I wouldn't bother panicking, it won't stop you getting the flu if you are going to get it.....

Neil · 14-10-2005, 16:54

Just to be on the safe side I am intending to wear a full chemical suit and respirator tomorrow morning when I go down town to do a bit of shopping. I think the look on peoples face will be very funny. Would any of you like to join me? I have a spare suit..

Acrylic-bob · 14-10-2005, 17:05

Apparently as long as the virus remains in birds and does not mutate we are all relatively safe. If, however, it gets into a human cell that is already host to another form of humanly transmissable flu virus they could potentially have a bit of a virus get together and swap chromosomes. Then the H5N1 virus could become capable of being transmitted from human to human and, given how virulent this virus is, that is when people start dropping like flies. Starting the panic now is counterproductive and will only cause economic damage - you can expect the supermarket price of Chicken and Duck to drop considerably the closer the virus gets to us.

The vaccine that the government is stockpiling, "Tamiflu", is probably going to be a bit of a waste of time and money. As I understand the situation it won't stop you contracting the virus in the first place, but it will make the symptoms less lethal, you will still be able to pass it on to relatives, friends and strangers. By the time that you realise that you have the virulent H5N1 strain of flu and not a typical strain or just a cold it will probably be too late to do much about it. Any vaccine to specifically target mutated H5N1 will take months to develop and even longer to produce in quantities sufficient to innoculate everybody in Western Europe, America, and everywhere else. There is a strict pecking order in these things, as you might expect, and the great and the good will be first in the queue. You and I will probably come in fairly low down on the list.

In the Hong Kong SARS outbreak it was found that bad sanitation and blocked sewers lead to the spread of the infection. The moral here is DISINFECT everyone and everything, particularly your hands, before during and after anything that you do.

Lets hope it doesn't manage to get round to mutating, eh?

Anyone interested in shares in Carbolic Soap?????

grannyclaret · 14-10-2005, 17:31

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neil

Just to be on the safe side I am intending to wear a full chemical suit and respirator tomorrow morning when I go down town to do a bit of shopping. I think the look on peoples face will be very funny. Would any of you like to join me? I have a spare suit..

you could get a job as a lollipop man and kill two birds with one stone,,,,,
i think theres a joke there somewhere

SPUGGIE J · 14-10-2005, 18:18

Lets all go out and have an american stylet urkey shoot just to be on the safe side.

garinda · 14-10-2005, 18:25

Stop kissing birds right now.

lettie · 15-10-2005, 07:25

I was recently given a very good tip for dealing with the flu. So being the selfless soul that I am, I will share it with you all so that you can remain healthy this winter..

It makes a lot of sense in a twisted kind of way.... When you go to get an injection at the doctors or hospital, the nurse will swab the injection site with alcohol. We do this to kill germs on your skin. Therefore plenty of alcohol in your system should help to keep you germ-free.

Remember that it's better to have a shot in your glass....................than a shot in your a...

Less · 15-10-2005, 10:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tealeaf

And if the virus does prove highly contagious, what are you going to do?

Sneeze alot, moan and groan a great deal more and bore everyone I meet with my tales of woe about how this is the worse case of 'flu ever caught in the history of mankind (a bit like when I get a mild cold really).

garinda · 15-10-2005, 10:09

If it does arrive and mutate, will only men get it?

Women will only have the 'bit of as snuffle' strain and stop being so mard type.

grego · 15-10-2005, 18:57

Yes, men will definately suffer more.

Gayle · 15-10-2005, 19:10

I don't know about flu but there is definitely a tummy bug going around. The number of people that I know that have spent at least one night in the last fortnight throwing up! I haven't had it yet but as I was up all night with Maddie last night I fully expect to get it soon.