Quote:
Originally Posted by kestrelx
But why even bother "what iffing!" these scenario's? What arn't going to happen anyway!
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If you really want to know...
Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development
The Rockefeller Foundation
page 9
WHY SCENARIOS?
The goal of this project was not to affirm what is already
known and knowable about what
is happening right now at the intersections of
technology and development. Rather, it was to
explore the many ways in which technology
and development could co-evolve could both
push and inhibit each other in the future, and
then to begin to examine what those possible
alternative paths may imply for the worlds
poor and vulnerable populations. Such an
exercise required project participants to push
their thinking far beyond the status quo, into
uncharted territory.
Scenario planning is a methodology designed
to help guide groups and individuals through
exactly this creative process. The process
begins by identifying forces of change in the
world, then combining those forces in different
ways to create a set of diverse stories or
scenarios about how the future could evolve.
Scenarios are designed to stretch our thinking
about both the opportunities and obstacles that
the future might hold; they explore, through
narrative, events and dynamics that might
alter, inhibit, or enhance current trends, often
in surprising ways.
Together, a set of scenarios
captures a range of future possibilities,
good and bad, expected and surprising but
always plausible. Importantly, scenarios are
not predictions. Rather, they are thoughtful
hypotheses that allow us to imagine, and then to
rehearse, different strategies for how to be more
prepared for the future or more ambitiously,
how to help shape better
futures ourselves.