It’s Almost Tomorrow

[jambutty]

Imagine this – the year is 2030 and global warming has taken a hold with a vengeance. Sea levels have risen drowning many coastal towns. The world’s oil has all but run out and to make matters worse the coastal nuclear power stations are under water and thus useless. To conserve the natural gas to ensure that domestic and industrial supplies continue, many gas fired power stations are closed down. Electrified railways went the way of the steam engine.

Electrical energy is in short supply with not enough electricity being generated for our normal needs.

Buying and installing an electricity generating domestic windmill would be beyond the means of most people and in any case wouldn’t be cost effective. It has been calculated that it would take some twenty years to recoup the outlay.

In the UK it has been decreed that each household will be limited to using just 450 kilowatt hours of electrical power per 90 days quarter. That is 5Kw per day. Just for a change, single people and pensioner married couples would be at an advantage. I used 520Kw during my last summer quarter. It rises to about 750Kw in the winter quarter.

To put that into perspective it means that you can use a single bar (1Kw) electric fire for 5 hours per day or you can have your TV on for some 10 hours. A computer uses less electricity than a TV - say about 15 hours per day.
Washing machines will use up to 3Kw per wash cycle on hot wash (half that on a cool wash) and a fridge freezer will use up to 1Kw per day.
Spending an hour doing the ironing would probably account for 1Kw.
An average electric kettle will use 2Kw or 3Kw of power in an hour, which would be enough for about 12 individual mugs of brews.
A 100 watts electric light bulb will use 1Kw in 10 hours, although a low energy bulb of similar luminosity would use just one tenth of that amount. Although it is a moot point whether the manufacture of these low energy bulbs uses much more power than the manufacture of the standard types.
All electric central heating would probably use 3Kw per hour although a gas central heating system is controlled by electricity and that too would use about 1Kw per hour.
A ten minutes shower would use 0.5Kw.
You could vacuum for 2 hours and use 1Kw.

In short we would be limited in what electrical appliances we could use and for how long.

The question is which electrical appliance can you do without? Or put another way how would you use your electrical allowance?

First of all the electric kettle would go and be replaced by a whistling kettle for the gas stove.
I couldn’t reduce the use of the washing machine without doing without it altogether. But that would be no real hardship, as I have spent 13 years doing my washing by hand, even sheets and blankets whilst in the navy. A washboard would come in handy though. Skiffle group anyone?
I would have to be even more selective than I am now in watching TV but it could be done, as there is a lot of good stuff to listen to on the wireless, records etc. instead. Listening to the radio or records in candlelight appeals to me, although I would probably fall asleep.
My computer activity would have to be severely limited though.
My gas central heating would be turned off but I would still have hot water on demand and I would have to use the gas fire for heating one room.
An extra blanket on my bed would counter a cold bedroom. As would extra clothing to wear during the day. Even nowadays on extra cold winter nights I wrap a blanket around my legs whilst watching TV or sat at the computer. It’s cheaper than upping the thermostat a few degrees.

I would cope with such a regime.

Would you???

[Neil]

Not a problem for me, I would just fire up my vegetable oil fired generator and be the envy of the street.

[bullseyebarb]

Dear Jambutty: Why are you such a pessimist? I do not share your dark vision of the future at all.

[Archstud]

Its quite an interesting scenario Jambutty- its really easy to walk round the house switching things on and not realsising how much energy they use. I know people who always have the TV on in the background- do they realise how much electricity they are using?

We don't have a TV at the moment and it makes you realise how much time you can waste in front of it- the internet can be as bad though

[AccyJay]

I'm one of those people. I always have the news or Sky Sports news on in the background when i'm on the pc.

[SPUGGIE J]

Providing I can row to warmer winter climbs and there is food to shoot and catch I will be alright. Then again I might not know about it as the number 76 might hit me on Bo'ness Road tomorrow

[jambutty]

I’m not a pessimist bullseyebarb. I am a realist. I look life squarely in the face. If life has a pessimistic outlook then I acknowledge it even though I have little or no control of what tomorrow will bring about.

Global warming is an acknowledged fact. The only dispute is who, if anyone, is responsible. Is it a natural cyclical phenomenon? If it is, is man’s activity exacerbating the situation? It doesn’t really matter because mineral oil is a finite resource. Sooner or later the oil will be so scarce that it will not be used to power electricity generating plants.

The polar ice caps are melting faster with each passing year. The seas are already rising albeit by a few millimetres but the each year they rise a bit higher. It is only a matter of time before coastal towns are flooded. A predicted 10 metres rise in sea levels would not only kill billions but lay waste billions of acres of arable land. Even just a one metre rise would have a disastrous effect on the world’s population. The Middle East oil fields would be swamped.

In short my imaginary scenario is a distinct possibility. Look what happened when the miners went on strike back in 1972 when industry in the UK went onto a 3 days week and there were domestic power cuts.

[entwisi]

Actually JB, none of this scaremongering would actually happen. If Holland can have such a vast amount of its land 'below sea level' then why can't the rest of the world. As for the oil field, most of our oil comes from under the sea anyway so a few feet of sea water isn't likely to dissuade people from extracting it. as fpr killing billions, I'm sorry, your own argument says millimeters/year, people won't be taken by surprise at that sort of rate.


Yes there may be migratory issue as people move away from places at risk but see my argument about Holand and actually you see that the chance of it happening is actually very slim

Oil may be a finite resource, we are getting a heck of a lot better at harnessing stuff like solar power. Hydo electric (Wave generators, in your apocalyptic world there is plenty of ocean hence plenty of tides to harness the power of.)

Its a shame that a good discussion (power consumption and how aware are you of your usage) has been tainted by such sensationalistic claptrap.

[Mancie]

jambutty's original post speaks of a regime in 2030 with heavy restrictions on household power, some people already have such a regime in place.. I'm talking about people living on state pensions who cannot afford fuel now 2006!

[Bazf]

Myth #1: Scientists Agree the Earth Is Warming. While ground-level temperature measurements suggest the earth has warmed between 0.3 and 0.6 degrees Celsius since 1850, global satellite data, the most reliable of climate measure-ments, show no evidence of warming during the past 18 years.
Even if the earth's temperature has increased slightly, the increase is well within the natural range of known temperature variation over the last 15,000 years. Indeed, the earth experienced greater warming between the 10th and 15th centuries - a time when vineyards thrived in England and Vikings colonized Greenland and built settlements in Canada.


Myth #2: Humans Are Causing Global Warming. Scientists do not agree that humans discernibly influence global climate because the evidence supporting that theory is weak. The scientific experts most directly concerned with climate conditions reject the theory by a wide margin.
A Gallup poll found that only 17 percent of the members of the Meteorological Society and the American Geophysical Society think that the warming of the 20th century has been a result of greenhouse gas emissions - principally CO2 from burning fossil fuels.


Myth # 3: Human-Caused Global Warming Will Cause Cataclysmic Environmental Problems. Proponents of the theory of human-caused global warming argue that it is causing and will continue to cause all manner of environmental catastrophes, including higher ocean levels and increased hurricane activity. Reputable scientists, including those working on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations organization created to study the causes and effects of global climate warming, reject these beliefs. Sea levels are rising around the globe, though not uniformly. In fact, sea levels have risen more than 300 feet over the last 18,000 years - far predating any possible human impact. Rising sea levels are natural in between ice ages. Contrary to the predictions of global warming theorists, the current rate of increase is slower than the average rate over the 18,000-year period.

Glad I'm not a realist I would think the world was ending soon.

[jambutty]

Why is it that some people are so big headed and so full of their own self importance that they cannot differentiate between fact and fiction?

Totally off topic Bazf.

[entwisi]

Fact or fiction you wanted to start a debate on the effect on climate of our ways, if you don't like people disagreeing with what you post then don't start debates.

I don't consider my head any bigger than anyone elses, as for self importance, I can't see anything in my post that made out I was important? perhaps you can take time out to point it out to me.

BazF has taken teh time to add weight to the arguement beyond what is normally published in the red tops.

[garinda]

Wind turbines may be relatively expensive at the moment, but with the advancements in technology, and costs falling because of mass production, they are certainly one way of ensuring some electrical supply for a lot of people in the future.

I've written before how I lived in the only house in Ossy which had electricity in the blackouts in the seventies, thanks to a windmill on the garage roof that my Dad knocked up out of an old church pew, a wheelchair and some drainpipe.

[AccyJay]

Originally Posted by garinda

thanks to a windmill on the garage roof that my Dad knocked up out of an old church pew, a wheelchair and some drainpipe.

Sounds like an episode of the "A-Team". lol

[SPUGGIE J]

If there is on thing that is certain in the future is that man is smart enough to find a solution to his problems. Just to help things along a bit we doo have allies in our so called fight against global warming;

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/19102006/32...b-warming.html

Before it is taken as of topic read it all and you will see a possible other reason for global warming.