2012 Prediction League; Game 44 v Morecambe FC (home)

Div3North · 10-04-2013, 00:22

Accrington Stanley

V

Morecambe FC

2012/13 Prediction League; Game 44 v Morecambe (home)

Generally, it’s your away form which defines your season; so which of the sides flirting with the trapdoor out of the League has the worst away record?

If you look at the ‘won/lost’ column, it’s actually Barnet (13 away defeats) followed by the Wombles (12); next come Torquay, Stanley, Morecambe, Oxford and Northampton – despite lying 4th (courtesy of Burton’s 2-0 win over Wycombe tonight) – all with 11…………

And where, you might ask, are York and Aldershot? Way up that list, is the answer – both having lost just 6 games on the road

…………….If, though, you go by ‘points won’ away, it’s very different; Torquay prop up that list (17 points, with just 3 wins and 8 draws on the road), followed by Barnet (18, 5 wins 3 draws) and Plymouth (also 18, 4 wins and 6 draws)

But then, of course, you turn to the ‘remaining fixtures’ page, and - putting on your prediction hat – try to guess how many points the bottom 7 – ‘cos realistically it probably is amongst them now – will pick up ……..

Plymouth play Burton and Chesterfield away, Rotherham at home, and Rochdale away ………….and I think that’s maybe the toughest programme of anyone
Barnet go to Torquay (how massive is that one going to be? ), play Wycombe at home, and finish up at Northampton
We play Morecambe on Friday at home, Bristol Rovers (who got a thumping tonight at Bradford) away, and finish up at home to Oxford; how ironic might THAT game be …………
The Wombles have Exeter at home, Gillingham away , and Fleetwood at home
Torquay follow the Barnet game by going to Morecambe and meeting Bristol Rovers at home
York visit Northampton , entertain Southend and finish up at Dagenham
Aldershot – who got a potentially invaluable point at Port Vale this evening – go to Wycombe, play Southend and Dagenham at home, and finish the season at Rotherham

My best guess is that Torquay and Aldershot pick up 5 points each; York and we get 4, Plymouth and Wimbledon get 3, and Barnet get 2. That leaves us and Plymouth on 52

, the Wombles and Torquay on 51, and Barnet, York and Aldershot all on 50 ………..Down to goal difference

…….and currently York and Aldershot are on -14, and Barnet on -10. My guess is that York and Aldershot have too much to do making up 4 goals difference …….so they go down

. But I bet I’m wrong!

Morecambe have done very little in the transfer / loan markets; Ryan Williams – a 21 year-old MF from Chester and Rhyl was given a short-term contract in October, which has now been extended to the end of next season; apart from him, the only other New Boy is striker Chris Holroyd (26), who learned his craft at Crewe, went to Brighton, to Westley’s Stevenage, then to Rotherham, who sold him to PNE in Jan 2012; he scored 1 in 20 starts, was loaned out to Macclesfield for the first half of the season, then released by North End in early January ………………That aside, zilch!

Since they came up to the Football League in 2007 we haven’t – whisper it

– lost to them in a League game; 7 wins, 4 draws – the most recent being on November 6th last, when we drew 0-0 at the Globe, courtesy of Bavs’ penalty save

from Richard Brodie, Deano having been adjudged to have fouled Kevin Ellison; that save, by the way, was timed at 90 mins + 2 mins 38 – so we don’t just score in “Fergie Time” …………….They did dump us out of the Tinpot 2-0 at ours, but I don’t think we’re terribly worried about that …………… Doesn’t count anyway …………… So there!

Last time we played them in the League they’d just drawn with Coleydale (1-1) in the FA Cup 1st Round; they went to Spotland and won the replay, but their hopes of glory nosedived when they then went to the Ricoh and lost 2-1 to Coventry.

Although in mid-table, their recent League form hasn’t been that thrilling; their last six have resulted in one win (2-1 at home to the Millers), three draws – all by 1-1 – away at Oxford, and at home to the Gills and the Cobblers, and two losses – 2-0 away at Wimbledon and 1-0 at home to Wycombe ………… 6 games, 5 goals, 6 points

………….. In our last 6 we’ve had 3 wins, 2 draws and just one defeat

…………… Their away record is W6 D4 L11 F26 A32; overall, they sit 14th on 55 points from 14 wins, 13 draws and 16 defeats; after us they’ve got Torquay at home and Southend away ………

In the League they’ve scored 54 and conceded 57; in the Cups, 9 more scored ………..of those 63 goals, their leading scorers are 5’5” striker Jack Redshaw (21) – formerly with Man City, Rochdale, Salford and Altrincham before he went to the Globe in January 2012 – with 16 (how does a pro footballer of 5’ 5” get any – especially with his head? Maybe he runs between their legs…………..?

); MF Kevin Ellison (33), whose non-League exploits included Conwy Utd before he joined, among others, Altrincham, Stockport, Chester, Hull, Tranmere and Rotherham, has 13; and Crawley’s 25 year-old on-loan striker Richard Brodie has 6, although that number won’t increase, since Morecambe couldn’t afford to keep him after his 6 month loan finished

, so he went home on 2nd January, joined Grimsby on 4th January for the rest of the season, missed a penalty in the 4-1 penalty shoot-out defeat by Wrexham in the FA Trophy Final on 24th March

, and was “released from his loan spell” the next day

(does that mean he was sacked, do you think, or that he couldn’t be arsed any more?

)

Deadline for entries, as you well know, is scheduled kick-off time, which is 7.45 on Friday 12th April. The stats – present form, as well as head-to-head – suggest we ought to win this one, but since when do stats tell you anything you can rely on? This is blood-and-thunder reality………we need it more than them – let’s just pray that we want it more than them!

Good luck to everybody ………………. Keep the Faith ……………. And thanks for playing!