Better under floodlights?

Tealeaf · 22-02-2006, 15:13

Now that we're getting into various maths & stats computations in the run-in to the end of season and hopeful promotion, here is a little statistic some of you may wish to comment on.

So far , I calculate that we have played 7 night games fully under floodlights. I am excluding the game against Altrincham because that was in August & I am assuming there was alot of natural light, certainly at the beginning of the game.

In those 7 games, we have scored a total of 17 goals and let in 6; on average, 2.42 goals for & 0.85 goals against, a net difference of 1.57 and a nice margin.

In the remaining 22 games - some of which, of course, will have been played partially under lights - we have scored 38 and let in 23.That is a ratio of only 1.73 to 1.04, a net difference of only .69 and far less comforable.

None of our 4 losses have been under lights. In fact, if all our games had have been played under lights then a statistical projection would suggest 70 goals for, 24 against and no losses and with 87 points, just 7 short of the title.

Anyone have 'owt to say about these sums?

KIPAX · 22-02-2006, 15:15

get some fresh air man!

Tealeaf · 22-02-2006, 15:19

Ye can't argue with the facts!

Cafu01 · 22-02-2006, 16:09

Wasnt the Morecambe away game under lights it was on a tuesday night and we lost 3-2 !!

Oggy · 22-02-2006, 16:56

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tealeaf

Ye can't argue with the facts!

Well, it seems you can. I remember driving towards the floodlights at Morecambe, Butler already off before I got in.

Tealeaf · 22-02-2006, 17:06

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cafu01

Wasnt the Morecambe away game under lights it was on a tuesday night and we lost 3-2 !!

Oh Sh*t!! I omitted that one.

Arguably, that result was an anonomoly - the shrimper's lights are well known for being covered in sea salt, thus distorting the light beams So the stats have changed - quite significantly - but they still show a higher net goal yield under lights than in daytime conditions

John_Timmins · 22-02-2006, 17:31

probably due to the fact that i reckon that the evening games have a bit more of an atmoshpere about them

fettler · 22-02-2006, 18:25

We still have a bulb out on one of our floodlights, thats all season folks... and no I am not an anal retentive about flipping floodlights

sparkie · 22-02-2006, 19:41

Ithink it has something in common with you fettler.........

A loose connection!!!!!

Jimbo T Hornblower · 22-02-2006, 21:04

I agree with Kipax - you need to get out more Tealeaf - dont stay in the mug too long - youll ruin the brew....

Jimbo T

blower

Tealeaf · 08-03-2006, 15:19

Well, after last nights performance shooting up the shots, I've revised some stats. This time, I have excluded the early part of the season - which is up to our last defeat of the season against Stevenage on 15th Oct 05. we have played 18 Conference games since then

These are how the numbers turn out: (games played in brackets)

Goals Daytime Kick off (12 ) Evening Kick off (6)

For 22 16

Against 9 4

Goal diff. +13 +12

Average For (per game) 1.83 2.66

Average Against 0.75 0.66

For/Against ratio 2.44 :1 4:1

I don't want to bore everyone with statistical concepts and I'm sure that some of you may say that this is no more than a statistical fluke; but nevertheless, the numbers quite clearly indicate that we have do substancially better in games beginning under lights. No,I do not have an explanation.

Oggy · 08-03-2006, 15:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tealeaf

This time, I have excluded the early part of the season - which is up to our last defeat of the season against Stevenage on 15th Oct 05. we have played 18 Conference games since then

Also excluded are the floodlight games against Rotherham, Worcester, Worksop and Southport. I knowyou're only refering to Conference games but these four results muddy the water somewhat.

I,too agree with Kipax, you need to get out a bit more.

Tealeaf · 08-03-2006, 15:59

The non-conference games were deliberatly excluded because it is obvious to everyone by now that the FAT and the Lancs cup were simply not taken seriously.

Its a shame that there is not a grading of pitch conditions, as in race course tracks in horse racing (soft,good-to-firm, etc). A statistical analysis of Stanleys performance under relative pitch conditions would be a fasinating exercise, I think.

Oggy · 07-04-2006, 22:22

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tealeaf

I don't want to bore everyone with statistical concepts and I'm sure that some of you may say that this is no more than a statistical fluke; but nevertheless, the numbers quite clearly indicate that we have do substancially better in games beginning under lights. No,I do not have an explanation.

OK, Tealeaf, adding Southport and FGR, how does it stack up now?