points from safety

stanley convert · 01-02-2009, 11:33

Anybody done the calculation yet as to how many points we need to be safe this season.I know that statisticly both Bournemouth and Luton are in the do do but for once I would like to be able to sit back and enjoy the run in to the end of the season without the squeaky bum syndrome as Africaaner calls it.
Looking at our next six matches, HOME Luton,Brentford and Dag&Red AWAY Shrewsbury,Bournemouth & Aldershot and looking at the fixtures for the teams just above and below us 10 points from the next six matches would do me very nicely thank you.

afrikaaner · 01-02-2009, 11:48

Don't know about your calculations S/C but i would prefer 15 pts out of the next 6 games so i can use less squeaky bum cream by the end of the season.You keep using the cream S/C and it might stop your bum squeaking so loud on the clayton end lol,but seriously our position is still a bit precarious so 3 pts would be welcome on tiesday at Shrewsbury.

accy through and through

VALAIRIAN · 01-02-2009, 12:51

Quote:

Originally Posted by stanley convert

Anybody done the calculation yet as to how many points we need to be safe this season.I know that statisticly both Bournemouth and Luton are in the do do but for once I would like to be able to sit back and enjoy the run in to the end of the season without the squeaky bum syndrome as Africaaner calls it.
Looking at our next six matches, HOME Luton,Brentford and Dag&Red AWAY Shrewsbury,Bournemouth & Aldershot and looking at the fixtures for the teams just above and below us 10 points from the next six matches would do me very nicely thank you.

The usual rule of thumb in this league is 50 points (I am sure that 49 is the highest anybody has been relegated with) so the logic would say 33 points (plus the -17 points, if that makes sense) would be enough! That means 2 more wins and Eric's plan has worked...........

Chimer · 01-02-2009, 13:40

Quote:

Originally Posted by VALAIRIAN

The usual rule of thumb in this league is 50 points (I am sure that 49 is the highest anybody has been relegated with) so the logic would say 33 points (plus the -17 points, if that makes sense) would be enough! That means 2 more wins and Eric's plan has worked...........

Unfortunately it doesn't make sense, unless Luton and Bournemouth are the two worst teams in the division, which they're not. The deductions just change the points they need to win to reach the safety point, i.e. 80 and 67 respectively. Bournemouth are on track to win 55 or so points on the field, which would mean they'd finish with 38 (but they seem to be improving); Luton might make 60 for 30.

So the safety mark may be pushed down a bit, but if we finish with 33, we're most unlikely to survive - and won't deserve to.

VALAIRIAN · 01-02-2009, 13:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chimer

Unfortunately it doesn't make sense, unless Luton and Bournemouth are the two worst teams in the division, which they're not. The deductions just change the points they need to win to reach the safety point, i.e. 80 and 67 respectively. Bournemouth are on track to win 55 or so points on the field, which would mean they'd finish with 38 (but they seem to be improving); Luton might make 60 for 30.

So the safety mark may be pushed down a bit, but if we finish with 33, we're most unlikely to survive - and won't deserve to.

Fair enough point, I accept that your take on the points deduction is the correct way to look at it, but I just cannot see those bottom 2 getting out of it! So I think we are safe this season - with a few more wins.

Haggis316 · 01-02-2009, 14:50

Forget the points deductions.

If they are the only reason any side stays up people will tend to regard them as a side who are a Conference side in all but name.

I will only be completely happy if maintain our season on season improvement regardless of points deductions.

lancsdave · 01-02-2009, 15:51

The reality is that Luton out of 18 games Luton have to win 8 more games than stanley just to get to within a point. Given they have only only won 7 out of 28 so far thats a pretty big ask. Think Luton are too far gone.

Bournemouth need to win 6 more games than Stanley to catch up and they have only won 6 out of 28 so far.

Stanley have won as many as Luton and one more than Bournemouth already.

I reckon 2 or 3 more wins for Stanley should see them very safe, especially if they are against Luton & Bournemouth

cashman · 01-02-2009, 16:01

seems to me,some folk panic/worry when there is nowt to worry about, from what i have seen stanley are playing a better style/standard of football than last season by a country mile I.M.H.O. ok they aint gonna set the division alight, only a fool would expect that given their financial situation. personally i reckon given their resorces it aint bad. get into the last 6/8 games n in the mire, then its time to worry.

Grimps · 04-02-2009, 17:35

good football but still go down would you all be happy if we went down
we look safe but looking on bbc web were you can play god i just done it and bourenmouth pip us

cashman · 04-02-2009, 17:55

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grimps

good football but still go down would you all be happy if we went down
we look safe but looking on bbc web were you can play god i just done it and bourenmouth pip us

now come on Grimps,whats god know about football.

Grimps · 04-02-2009, 19:01

have a go on it and see were stanley are . ok not god

Outback Ozzy · 04-02-2009, 19:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grimps

good football but still go down would you all be happy if we went down
we look safe but looking on bbc web were you can play god i just done it and bourenmouth pip us

This is all very well, but what about Chester, Grimsby and Rotherham. Rotherham will be above us come the end of the season, but Chester and Grimsby, I think not. So it won't matter about Bournemouth pipping us will it.

Reamer · 04-02-2009, 23:18

Since the beginning of Jan we've played seven games with five of em away and picked up five points (should have been seven if we'd beaten Barnet). Out of our next seven games, five are at home and against teams that I think we can take points off. We need a good run put together in these games and move towards safety asap.

Grimps · 05-02-2009, 08:39

reamer snap but i see the next two home game must we so we put a gap between use and the bottom 4 not 2

Reamer · 05-02-2009, 11:20

Of the next seven games only Luton and Bournemouth are below us. We really need to beat Luton on saturday and if we play to our best, I think we can. I'm not so sure about Bournemouth, surely they can't be as bad as they were when we wupped em at home. If we can get a draw there, at least we wouldn't be conceding points to em. All well and good in theory, but we all know this is the ASFC rollercoaster we are talking about...all aboard