Unlock tentative steps

[andyd]

Grimsby have actually had to postpone their next 3 games as club going into 14 hibernation, this is going to create real problems if testing in the EFL isn't made mandatory again or season will descend into farce.

[Twenty Eight]

Originally Posted by andyd

Two games off tomorrow due to positive tests both in league 2 Cheltenham v Grimsby and Walsall v Orient this could be come normal.

My good mate Terry Curran’s son is the player that tested positive at Grimsby - Jock Curran.
Terry was one hell of a player and his son carving out a career...... all the best Jock x

[monkey hanger]

Originally Posted by andyd

Two games off tomorrow due to positive tests both in league 2 Cheltenham v Grimsby and Walsall v Orient this could be come normal.

mind you its better than the old normal. games being called off after we set off to go to one.

[MikeA]

Originally Posted by monkey hanger

mind you its better than the old normal. games being called off after we set off to go to one.

...or Somerset complaining after people had set off to come to us!

[andyd]

Stevenage,s game at Bradford hanging in the balance after one of there players tested positive, the problem now with the resurgence in the virus EFL,s testing of staff showing symptoms isn't clearly good enough premiership still testing everyone weekly. Problem again is down to cost so same appeal for help or games will be called off all over. Also with regular testing it's another case for safe return of spectators.

[AccyMad]

Originally Posted by MikeA

...or Somerset complaining after people had set off to come to us!

Would love to hear his take on games being called of because of Covid

[Exile on Spencer St]

Originally Posted by andyd

?.. if testing in the EFL isn't made mandatory again or season will descend into farce.

Originally Posted by andyd

?... the problem now with the resurgence in the virus....

Sorry, Andyd, just can’t let this go.
If you genuinely believe more, and mandatory, testing is going to help us get out of this man-made mess then you can’t have been reading what many, many scientists and doctors (not computer modellers) have been writing and saying about just how unreliable is the PCR process, and how it is picking up all sorts of viral remnants that we all have all the time.
Take a look at this chart and ask yourself if you notice any difference between the spike of “cases” and deaths in March/April and the (apparent) similar spike now.

And ask yourself why the Govt has continued to refuse to answer what % of total tests being carried are these recorded ‘positive cases’, and is that % going up, down, or staying the same. More tests, more “cases“, perhaps, but not it now seems more deaths.

[cashman]

Originally Posted by Exile on Spencer St

Sorry, Andyd, just can’t let this go.
If you genuinely believe more, and mandatory, testing is going to help us get out of this man-made mess then you can’t have been reading what many, many scientists and doctors (not computer modellers) have been writing and saying about just how unreliable is the PCR process, and how it is picking up all sorts of viral remnants that we all have all the time.
Take a look at this chart and ask yourself if you notice any difference between the spike of “cases” and deaths in March/April and the (apparent) similar spike now.

And ask yourself why the Govt has continued to refuse to answer what % of total tests being carried are these recorded ‘positive cases’, and is that % going up, down, or staying the same. More tests, more “cases“, perhaps, but not it now seems more deaths.

well its obvious there aint more deaths cos most now are younger.

[Tom D]

Originally Posted by Exile on Spencer St

Sorry, Andyd, just can’t let this go.
If you genuinely believe more, and mandatory, testing is going to help us get out of this man-made mess then you can’t have been reading what many, many scientists and doctors (not computer modellers) have been writing and saying about just how unreliable is the PCR process, and how it is picking up all sorts of viral remnants that we all have all the time.
Take a look at this chart and ask yourself if you notice any difference between the spike of “cases” and deaths in March/April and the (apparent) similar spike now.

And ask yourself why the Govt has continued to refuse to answer what % of total tests being carried are these recorded ‘positive cases’, and is that % going up, down, or staying the same. More tests, more “cases“, perhaps, but not it now seems more deaths.

Testing during March was on a much smaller scale than currently. The best estimates produced by ONS/Kings College is that there were around 100000 cases a day at that point. Therefore, the positive tests in March represented a vast underestimate of actual cases. Comparing the ratio of deaths to positive tests between now and 6 months ago isn't valid.

And deaths are increasing, that trend is clear. The rate of increase is around double every 8-10 days.

Most concerning is the number of admissions and patients ventilated within ICU. The number in ICU has doubled in 6 days. The knock on effect this has on the rest of the healthcare sector is vast, and much too complex to go into here. The overriding issue though is even with a modest increase in admissions to ICU/hospital, the net direct and indirect effect on morbidity and mortality is large. Also, unfortunately around half the patients who have been ventilated die based on experience in the UK.

Regardless of the specificity of the current testing regime, it is the best tool we have to help prevent ongoing transmission - short of imposing severe, vast restrictions on everyone's lives again.

With regards to getting fans back at football, there are no easy solutions. The solution certainly isn't no restrictions. It probably is something around very limited capacity, with additional support from centralised bodies, with risk mitigation through large scale population testing. I know that's rubbish for everyone, but it is the reality of our current situation.

[andyd]

Originally Posted by Tom D

Testing during March was on a much smaller scale than currently. The best estimates produced by ONS/Kings College is that there were around 100000 cases a day at that point. Therefore, the positive tests in March represented a vast underestimate of actual cases. Comparing the ratio of deaths to positive tests between now and 6 months ago isn't valid.

And deaths are increasing, that trend is clear. The rate of increase is around double every 8-10 days.

Most concerning is the number of admissions and patients ventilated within ICU. The number in ICU has doubled in 6 days. The knock on effect this has on the rest of the healthcare sector is vast, and much too complex to go into here. The overriding issue though is even with a modest increase in admissions to ICU/hospital, the net direct and indirect effect on morbidity and mortality is large. Also, unfortunately around half the patients who have been ventilated die based on experience in the UK.

Regardless of the specificity of the current testing regime, it is the best tool we have to help prevent ongoing transmission - short of imposing severe, vast restrictions on everyone's lives again.

With regards to getting fans back at football, there are no easy solutions. The solution certainly isn't no restrictions. It probably is something around very limited capacity, with additional support from centralised bodies, with risk mitigation through large scale population testing. I know that's rubbish for everyone, but it is the reality of our current situation.

I was referring to football not the general public which brings me to now I am currently in Bury absolutely packed QC scanning codes all over haven't seen one person scanning one social distancing none existing in most areas especially the market and we can't go football pull the other one.

[Chewbacca]

Originally Posted by andyd

I was referring to football not the general public which brings me to now I am currently in Bury absolutely packed QC scanning codes all over haven't seen one person scanning one social distancing none existing in most areas especially the market and we can't go football pull the other one.

If that is the case then the rising deaths won't go away anytime soon and we won't get to see any football for the foreseeable.

Irresponsible people cramming into packed town centres and it isn't their fault, it is everyone else's.

The Womble PM said this would be cracked down on, however won't resource a crack down properly.

[Exile on Spencer St]

Originally Posted by Tom D

...And deaths are increasing, that trend is clear. The rate of increase is around double every 8-10 days.

Ah, yes, numbers doubling. If Stanley win today their points will double, and if, like Whitty and Vallance did recently, we simply project that ‘doubling’ for the next few months they’ll already be promoted. But just what are the doubling numbers? Below is the most recent graph from ‘official’ sources.
Having said that, deaths may be increasing (they always tend to do as winter approaches) but we now seem to many times more likely to die from that nasty but non-media friendly annual virus - influenza.

Most concerning is the number of admissions and patients ventilated within ICU. The number in ICU has doubled in 6 days. ....

As for ventilators, it was known in NYC back in the Spring that ventilators we’re doing as much harm as good.
https://lockdownsceptics.org/how-eff...-ill-patients/

But, we all chose who () and what to believe.

[Tom D]

Originally Posted by Exile on Spencer St

As for ventilators, it was known in NYC back in the Spring that ventilators we’re doing as much harm as good.
https://lockdownsceptics.org/how-eff...-ill-patients/

But, we all chose who () and what to believe.

I am a specialist in Intensive Care and Respiratory Medicine, working at one of the biggest ICU's in North West.

[Exile on Spencer St]

Originally Posted by Tom D

I am a specialist in Intensive Care and Respiratory Medicine, working at one of the biggest ICU's in North West.

Good for you, I wish you and your patients well.
But then doesn’t Neil Ferguson call himself a professor?

[Reamer]

Xcuse me Exile, can i ask what you do ? what is your profession ? Are you an epidemiologist / scientist or from a medical background ?
I only ask because you jumped into this thread saying you ' just can't let this go' as though you have some revelationary expertise.
Please elaborate. We all take stock of the situation day by day. Tom D has stated where his expertise lies (and I cannot thank you enough Tom, for the work that you do) and yet your parting shot seems to imply mistrust in his claim.
Quote - 'But then doesn't Neil Ferguson call himself a professor ?'
Ironicly you keep calling Coleman 'Professor'. is he one ?

What do I do ?
Hill Farmer/ Shepherdess, semi skilled carpenter, welding, then moved to India bartending in Goa ( tequila, beer,gin,leaf, more beer)
proper job making bricks (eight years godawful). In between had a spell as a go go dancer (well I say a spell, it was one day.....err night)
and I spent time polishing Paul Simon's shoes during the recording of 'The Boxer'. Also been a paint sprayer and spent time on historical digs.
Other than that I have no special expertise but have reached an age when I can detect a warp weave.
Seriously though tell me what your point is. Are you trying to make us safe, aware or just stir up the mix. Either way , I think I'm probably with Tom D.